With the Mets biggest needs this offseason being a starter behind Johan Santana and a power bat, preferably in left field, John Lackey and Matt Holliday, the two biggest free agents on the market, have inevitably come up. Unless Omar Minaya has a couple of magical trades up his sleeve, I believe spending nearly all of our money on these two players would be a mistake.
First of all, we have to assume the Mets have enough money to acquire both players. Holliday will cost between 16-18MM+ per year while lackey would be around $15MM per year at least, and both players will require long-term deals. The Wilpons did say Omar will have all the money he needs to work with but talk is cheap. Tim Dierkes over at MLB Trade Rumors expects that the Mets will have between 25-30MM to spend, based on last year's payroll.
Secondly, the Mets would likely have little money to work with to fill their other needs, which include another starter or two, a catcher, a first basemen to platoon with Daniel Murphy, a second basemen should they trade Luis Castillo, and a relief pitcher.
More importantly, the Mets could find themselves in a situation similar to the one they were in this year. While its extremely unlikely the Mets will have a similar number of injuries in 2010 as they did in 2009, a injury to a major player or two could be enough to keep this team from making the playoffs. With the improved Marlins and Braves, and of course the reigning Phillies in the NL East, the Mets can afford few significant injuries. What would the rotation look like without Lackey (who has been injured for parts of the last 2 seasons)? How about the lineup without Holliday, Wright, or Beltran?
Here's my Offseason Plan. I will tackle this position by position, in order of importance.
STARTING PITCHING- Sign 2 starters from the group of Rich Harden, Randy Wolf, John Garland, Ben Sheets, Jason Marquis, and Joel Pineiro. Signing two starters, instead of one John Lackey, has its benefits. The Mets rotation may not be strong now but adding 2 quality starters would create depth in the rotation. Guys like Harden, Wolf, and Sheets have had extensive injury histories, but I think they would be great additions if checked out and deemed to be healthy. Part of the reason is because they would not necessarily need to pitch 200 innings. With enough rotation options, the Mets could afford to give their starters more rest. If John Maine or Oliver Perez is pushed out of the rotation and into the bullpen as a long man, they could be used to spot start also. For argument's sake, let's assume an injury does occur. Let's say the Mets manage to sign both Rich Harden and Randy Wolf. Even if Wolf were to go down for some time, Harden has the ability to step up and pitch like a #2 starter, and vice-versa. The rotation would not fall apart as it would if Lackey was there and got injured. Garland and Marquis are very solid options who are consistent year in and year out, so they would be good fits if the Mets do not feel confident in the other injury-prone starters. You also have to keep an eye to the future, with the 2011 free agent class potentially including starters such as Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett, Chris Young, and Jeff Francis, among others, if they are not signed to extensions. It's pure speculation, but it is something to keep in mind.
Approximate cost: 16-20MM per year
Sign 1 starter from the group of Erik Bedard, Brad Penny, Chien-Ming Wang (if available), Mark Prior, etc. Bedard and Penny would both be solid options at hopefully reasonable prices. If not resigned by the Yankees, Wang would be another low risk, high reward type of player. Prior would be an interesting sign if he comes cheap as well.
Approximate cost: 1yr, 3MM+ base with incentives
LEFT FIELD- Trade for a Left Fielder from the group of Brad Hawpe, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Alex Rios. Crawford would cost the most in terms of prospects, but his bat, speed and defense are excellent. Hawpe may not be a very good defender but he is a solid hitter who would provide 20+ homers. I think B.J. Upton and Alex Rios are the most interesting and possibly the most rewarding of these players. Each is coming off a poor season and Rios has an unfavorable contract. However, both are still young and have a world of talent. Upton plays great defense, can steals a ton of bases, and has, although he hasn't shown it much, some power (see 2008 Postseason). Rios has shown the ability to be a 20-20 player in the past. The key is that both would not cost a lot of prospects to get at this point, although the Rays may not want to sell low on Upton.
Approximate cost: unknown
FIRST BASE- Resign Carlos Delgado to a low base, incentive-laden deal. While most fans would rather move on from Delgado and the past, I don't think that's a smart baseball decision. Having Delgado in the lineup instantly decreases the need for the Mets to obtain power elsewhere. Presumably, Delgado can be had on a one-year deal, which is perfect with Daniel Murphy already there and Ike Davis ready to take over the first base job full time by 2011. I understand Delgado and Murphy are both left-handed hitters, but it's not like Delgado isn't an everyday player. He can handle himself against lefties. While he is turning 37 and has been injured for parts of the last few years, the sentiment that he is old and injury prone is overblown. Prior to the last few years, Delgado was always a dependable presence. He broke his hand when he was hit by a pitch and just had surgery to fix his bad hip, so he should be okay for one year. Above all, with Daniel Murphy already there, Delgado can be given a good amount of days off, decreasing his chances of becoming injured. Even if he only starts in 120 games, Delgado's bat would be more than welcome in the Mets lineup, especially at his relatively low price.
Approximate cost: 1yr, 6MM+ base, up to 14MM+ with incentives
One other possible benefit of signing Delgado would be the fact that, if he proves he is healthy and productive, he could be traded at the July 31st Trade Deadline to another contender. If the Mets feel confident enough with Murphy at first, if they see fit to bring up Ike Davis, or if they are somehow out of contention, Delgado could be traded for a couple of decent prospects. Just a side thought.
Another option could be to sign Garett Atkins, who likely will be non-tendered by the Colorado Rockies. He can also probably be had on a one-year deal at a good price. Prior to 2009, Atkins put up very solid numbers for the Rockies, averaging a .300 batting avg with 25+ homeruns. Even after a dismal 2009 season, he still hit lefties to the tune of .268. While he may not want to split time with Murphy at first should the Mets want to play him against lefties and Murphy against righties, he certainly is an interesting option to consider.
Approximate cost: 2-4MM
CATCHER- Sign Rod Barajas to platoon with Omir Santos at catcher.As Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog points out, Barajas would provide some of the needed power for the Mets, and he also hits lefties pretty well. Add in his solid defense behind the plate and the fact he can be had cheaply for a one-year deal, and Barajas looks like a no-brainer to me. With prospect Josh Thole a possibility to start in 2011, this move makes even more sense.
Approximate cost: 1MM+
SECOND BASE- If Luis Castillo is indeed dealt sometime this winter, I would advocate the signing of Kelly Johnson at second. Most fans desire Orlando Hudson, and while I understand the solid bat and intangibles he brings to the table, his price seems too steep to me. While his defense was again very good this year (yes I know he won the Gold Glove), he'll be turning 32 this year, and he has already started to show some decline in his defensive abilities, particularly his range. If he is looking for a multi-year contract at $8MM+, I think the Mets could better use this money elsewhere. Johnson had a poor year last year, and he is not the defensive second basemen Hudson is, but his 2007 and 2008 seasons were more than solid, as he put up a good batting average, hit a lot of doubles, and even stole a few bases. With Reese Havens, one of the Mets tops prospects, beginning his conversion to second base, the Mets may want to avoid a long term deal with an aging player. After a lost 2009, Johnson should be able to be had fairly cheap, and he's still only 28 years old, so there's a good chance of a bounce back year from him. If Hudson can be had at a reasonable contract, I'm all for signing him. If all else fails though, I think Johnson certainly merits some consideration.
Approximate cost: 2-3MM+ with incentives
RELIEF PITCHING- Sign a reliever such as Octavio Dotel, Will Ohman, Chad Bradford or resign J.J. Putz to a cheaper deal. I won't go into much detail with this one. The Mets need to acquire some sort of reliever at a good price. I like the idea of bringing back Chadford to New York but signing a reliever is the least of the Mets concerns right now.
Approximate cost: 1-2MM+
Factoring in the money saved in the Castillo trade and the unknown cost of trading for a left fielder, the Mets would spend between 30-40MM this offseason depending on incentives, which, according to the Wilpons, should be available to Omar. This plan may not be great, even if everything went accordingly, but it achieves its two most important goals. It significantly improves the 2010 Mets ballclub while managing not to mortgage the Mets farm system (trading for a left fielder will cost prospects but generally the price shouldn't be too steep).
Obviously, all of this is based upon how the market shapes up, what the Mets actually have to spend, and what each player asks/signs for. As I do more research and find out information about other trade candidates, pieces that may be fit, and the like, I'm sure this plan will undergo several changes. But, overall, I think this plan is a good starting point. How do you think the Mets should proceed this offseason?
